Early signs an Airlayer won’t root

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Hello! I’m a long time lurker and have very much appreciated the advice found on this forum! I decided to try air layering three different trees about a month ago. I know it’s better to begin the process a little earlier in the season but the trees only found me last month and I live in the south where our winters take longer to arrive. My question is does anyone have experience with the early signs that an air layer may not take? I know dying leaves and branches are a discouraging sign, rotted wood, etc but what about new growth above the air layer site? I’ve searched many phrases trying to find some details on what to look for but decided to just ask here just in case someone out there can answer me! Details on my various attempts below. Thank you!

One is a Deshojo Japanese Maple, nursery bought, attempting to layer the top 1/3 of the tree on the main trunk which is about 2-3” dia because it has the UGLIEST graft union I’ve ever seen and was buried 5 inches below the soil which I didn’t realize till I got it home and slip potted it exposing the root flare. Three weeks after doing the air layer it started popping tiny new buds on the top half of the air layer. Using sphangum moss rooting powder and cling wrap.

Next is a European Hornbeam, lots of potential in my eyes, attempting a top 1/3 on the main trunk air layer to shorten the tree. Same thing as the Deshojo it began putting tiny buds on the trunk above the air layer site and a few new leaves. Using sphangum moss rooting powder and cling wrap.

Last but not least a Ryusen Japanese Maple I got at a nursery blow out sale. It was $29, it’s about 5” tall but in a 1 gallon cont. same as the other two I’m trying to shorten the tree and did an air layer to the main trunk on the top 1/3 of the tree. No new buds or anything. Using sphangum moss rooting powder and cling wrap.


I did a Chinese elm I bought at Lowe’s, it was toooo cookie cutter for my liking, I did the air layer on the main trunk leaving the majority of the tree below. I didn’t realize my sphangum moss was too wet and the tree began rotting around the cut. All the old leaves died back and I thought it was a goner, but to my surprise it started putting out new leaves on the top most branches and when I checked was beginning to push some roots out above the rot so I’m holding out for success. Using sphangum moss rooting powder and cling wrap.
 
My experience this year with multiple air layers is can’t tell a difference until you see roots. No change above or below. Just roots in bag.
 
I’ve never seen any indicator above that reliably predicts if the layer has rooted. If the layer fails, that shows up as dying foliage above, but the converse doesn’t hold. Unwrapping the layer and seeing roots there is the only indicator of success that I’ve found.
 
A few photos will help visualize your dilemma.
 
Where are you located? That might help viewers understand more about your circumstances.
 

check out this video from our own Jelle (leatherback).

There’s a chapter that addresses your question, or rather the converse.
 
One month isn't enough time to start checking, on most trees anyway, including yours. And starting at this time of year, your best bet is to wait until spring and check for callous growth and see whether it's bridged or not. More than a few dying limbs above the layer would likely be indicative of a failed layer though.
 
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