The loss of moisture in a pot isn’t ethereal, it’s tangible and measurable. It’s directly observable.
It is also drier quicker at exposed surfaces (all other things equal) than interior regions, and drier at the top than at the middle or bottom, hydrophobic cores notwithstanding.
Moisture leaves a pot faster when a tree has more foliage, when the volume of the soil is more thoroughly filled with roots, when the column of soil is taller, etc etc. Many of these variables are in constant shift.
When I see or hear “watering is the hardest thing in bonsai” for me it doesn’t translate into “watering is a mystery” it translates to “watering is a lot of work because you must check every pot with your hand, take into account foliage, roots, and upcoming weather”. In other words, watering is straightforward, but toil-heavy.
Visit a garden like Hagedorn’s and follow Carmen when she waters and you see that she inspects every tree— yes, sometimes at a glance from sheer force of daily experience , but every tree is evaluated as stated above, in anticipation of or feedback from the interaction of photosynthesis, evaporation, and weather.
This is why “free draining substrate then set it and forget it” ultimately bites you — mindless watering has certainly bit me. If there are too many trees to check carefully for moisture status, then there are simply too many trees in the garden.