BillsBayou
Chumono
Scattered a few dozen pond cypress seeds across potting soil and watered them into the soil. The two pieces of uranium glass are fairly radioactive. Maybe nothing will happen. Maybe it'll screw with the DNA of the seedlings. The odds of that being something useful are about 0.000105 : 1
Seeds were collected in January 2024 from a row of landscape trees in New Orleans. The germination rate is unknown. There is another tray of seeds that are being properly cultivated away from the radiation.
Expected results: Nothing useful
Expected results: 0.00% useful
TL;DR: I'm a doofus with glowing rocks and the math is against me. I can't talk myself out of it. Don't waste your time.
Here's how I calculate my dismal odds of success:
The effects of radiation on the DNA of pond cypress seedlings interests me. There is a possibility that the radioactive material will damage the DNA of the plants. Of the damaged plants, there is a possibility the plants will continue to grow. Of the plants that continue to grow, there is a possibility the growth will become mutated. Of the mutated plants, there is a possibility that the plants will be interesting. Of the interesting plants, there is a possibility that it can be used as bonsai material. The number of useful plants can be determined by "Bill's Bayou's Equation" (apologies to astrophysicist Dr. Frank Drake
)
N = G ⋅ 𝑓(g)⋅ 𝑓(d) ⋅ 𝑓(m) ⋅ 𝑓(i) ⋅ 𝑓(b) ⋅ 𝑓(k)
N — Number of bonsai worthy trees per 100 seeds planted
G — Normal germination rate
𝑓(g) — Fraction of exposed seedlings that grow
𝑓(d) — Fraction that are damaged
𝑓(m) — Fraction that are mutated
𝑓(i) — Fraction that are interesting
𝑓(b) — Fraction that are bonsai worthy
𝑓(k) — Ignore this for now, see below
For example, here's a best-guess pulling numbers out of thin air:
70% Germination rate, or 70/100
50% Survive exposure to radiation and grow
30% Visibly damaged, stunted, weak, burned, etc...
10% Survivors that mutate, look healthy but different
10% Mutated trees that are interesting (burls, galls, and tumors aren't interesting, just ugly)
10% Can be used for bonsai (usual bonsai selection criteria)
N = 70% ⋅ 50% ⋅ 30% ⋅ 10% ⋅ 10% ⋅ 10%
N = 0.7 ⋅ 0.5 ⋅ 0.3 ⋅ 0.1 ⋅ 0.1 ⋅ 0.1
N = 0.000105 or 0.0105% (1% of 1%)
If I plant 10,000 seeds within an area of exposure, I can expect to get 1.05 mutated trees that can be used for bonsai. Here, "mutated" means the tree is visibly abnormal but looks good as a bonsai.
Note on 𝑓(k): Bill's Bayou's Equation should also include the "Knowledge" factor, 𝑓(k). Given that I really don't know what I'm doing, 𝑓(k) diminishingly close to 0. That's the real expectation of the experiment's results. I'll put that in my research paper's footnotes in tiny print on the last page. "[Note] If you've read this far, you've wasted your time."
The math gets worse, even ignoring the 𝑓(k) value. What defines the area of effect (AOE) in a seed tray? The AOE would be an area, roughly circular in shape (ceteris paribus), with the radiation source in the middle. The size of the AOE circle is a distance beyond which the expected germination rate is equal to the germination rate of a control group.
Example, a 12 inch AOE is discovered:
The radiation source is placed in the center of a 36" round container which contains planting substrate.
Seeds are planted in concentric rings around the center. We note the number of seeds in each circle.
As the seeds emerge, the germination rate of each ring is calculated as (# grown)/(# planted)
The germination rate is low between 11 and 12 inches, but average from 12 to 13 inches
The AOE is a circle with a 12 inch radius. That's where we will plant seeds.
The germination rate within 4 inches from the radiation is zero. The AOE has a dead zone. We won't plant seeds there.
Seeds are planted in the AOE from 4-inches to 12 inches out from the center.
The square inches of the seed planting area is simply the area of the larger "pie are square" minus the smaller "pie are square".
144𝜋 - 16𝜋 = 128𝜋 ≈ 402 square inches.
That's 402 seeds if we plant 1 seed per square inch.
With a return rate of 0.000105 for interesting bonsai material, on average, 0.042 trees will be good as bonsai material.
To get a non-fractional tree, run the experiment 24 times on 9,648 seeds. On average, 1.008 trees will be good as bonsai material.
Again, Knowledge, 𝑓(k), is likely zero. I will never get an interesting bonsai tree doing this. I did the math to talk myself out of doing this and failed. The good news for you, dear reader, is that this is my time to waste. Unless, of course, if you read this far, then yes, I have wasted your time.
Seeds were collected in January 2024 from a row of landscape trees in New Orleans. The germination rate is unknown. There is another tray of seeds that are being properly cultivated away from the radiation.
Expected results: Nothing useful
Expected results: 0.00% useful
TL;DR: I'm a doofus with glowing rocks and the math is against me. I can't talk myself out of it. Don't waste your time.
Here's how I calculate my dismal odds of success:
The effects of radiation on the DNA of pond cypress seedlings interests me. There is a possibility that the radioactive material will damage the DNA of the plants. Of the damaged plants, there is a possibility the plants will continue to grow. Of the plants that continue to grow, there is a possibility the growth will become mutated. Of the mutated plants, there is a possibility that the plants will be interesting. Of the interesting plants, there is a possibility that it can be used as bonsai material. The number of useful plants can be determined by "Bill's Bayou's Equation" (apologies to astrophysicist Dr. Frank Drake
)N = G ⋅ 𝑓(g)⋅ 𝑓(d) ⋅ 𝑓(m) ⋅ 𝑓(i) ⋅ 𝑓(b) ⋅ 𝑓(k)
N — Number of bonsai worthy trees per 100 seeds planted
G — Normal germination rate
𝑓(g) — Fraction of exposed seedlings that grow
𝑓(d) — Fraction that are damaged
𝑓(m) — Fraction that are mutated
𝑓(i) — Fraction that are interesting
𝑓(b) — Fraction that are bonsai worthy
𝑓(k) — Ignore this for now, see below
For example, here's a best-guess pulling numbers out of thin air:
70% Germination rate, or 70/100
50% Survive exposure to radiation and grow
30% Visibly damaged, stunted, weak, burned, etc...
10% Survivors that mutate, look healthy but different
10% Mutated trees that are interesting (burls, galls, and tumors aren't interesting, just ugly)
10% Can be used for bonsai (usual bonsai selection criteria)
N = 70% ⋅ 50% ⋅ 30% ⋅ 10% ⋅ 10% ⋅ 10%
N = 0.7 ⋅ 0.5 ⋅ 0.3 ⋅ 0.1 ⋅ 0.1 ⋅ 0.1
N = 0.000105 or 0.0105% (1% of 1%)
If I plant 10,000 seeds within an area of exposure, I can expect to get 1.05 mutated trees that can be used for bonsai. Here, "mutated" means the tree is visibly abnormal but looks good as a bonsai.
Note on 𝑓(k): Bill's Bayou's Equation should also include the "Knowledge" factor, 𝑓(k). Given that I really don't know what I'm doing, 𝑓(k) diminishingly close to 0. That's the real expectation of the experiment's results. I'll put that in my research paper's footnotes in tiny print on the last page. "[Note] If you've read this far, you've wasted your time."
The math gets worse, even ignoring the 𝑓(k) value. What defines the area of effect (AOE) in a seed tray? The AOE would be an area, roughly circular in shape (ceteris paribus), with the radiation source in the middle. The size of the AOE circle is a distance beyond which the expected germination rate is equal to the germination rate of a control group.
Example, a 12 inch AOE is discovered:
The radiation source is placed in the center of a 36" round container which contains planting substrate.
Seeds are planted in concentric rings around the center. We note the number of seeds in each circle.
As the seeds emerge, the germination rate of each ring is calculated as (# grown)/(# planted)
The germination rate is low between 11 and 12 inches, but average from 12 to 13 inches
The AOE is a circle with a 12 inch radius. That's where we will plant seeds.
The germination rate within 4 inches from the radiation is zero. The AOE has a dead zone. We won't plant seeds there.
Seeds are planted in the AOE from 4-inches to 12 inches out from the center.
The square inches of the seed planting area is simply the area of the larger "pie are square" minus the smaller "pie are square".
144𝜋 - 16𝜋 = 128𝜋 ≈ 402 square inches.
That's 402 seeds if we plant 1 seed per square inch.
With a return rate of 0.000105 for interesting bonsai material, on average, 0.042 trees will be good as bonsai material.
To get a non-fractional tree, run the experiment 24 times on 9,648 seeds. On average, 1.008 trees will be good as bonsai material.
Again, Knowledge, 𝑓(k), is likely zero. I will never get an interesting bonsai tree doing this. I did the math to talk myself out of doing this and failed. The good news for you, dear reader, is that this is my time to waste. Unless, of course, if you read this far, then yes, I have wasted your time.
