Yes. I don't recall the exact numbers, but in 2022 someone mentioned $150K in tree sales - give or take - for 30-40 trees(?). To get those kinds of numbers, he started with very expensive material. And that is for an annual sale, which as far as I'm concerned, is a whole lot of work and cost and logistics for an annual sale to gross those kinds of numbers. Particularly outside of Portland, which is not the cheapest part of the country.
This is spot on. As somebody who also does an annual sale every March I can confirm that the work, cost, and logistics far outweigh the profit margin -- and I don't invest anywhere near as much as Ryan must invest in styling, photography, website design, garden design, etc. all of which are necessary, I think, to be able to sell material in the upper price ranges; I use an iPhone balancing on a table and do the website myself
But I do have other costs (besides those of my own production nursery), like paying buyers in Japan (commission, transport, auction access, shipping), nurseries (storage space, watering, fertilization, pruning), and exporters (transport/pick up, preparation, phytosanitary certificate, watering, fertilization, fungicides/pesticides, bare rooting, packing and shipping, etc.).
Globally, from production nurseries to pools of buyers the industry simply isn't large enough to benefit in a significant way from any kind of scaling (I've tried!). For example, I can't bring down costs by ordering 10,000 shohin callicarpa in Japan because I don't have the buyers for that and, more importantly, there is nobody in Japan producing 10,000 shohin callicarpas at bargain prices. For people working with home-grown yamadori, the situation is the same; there are no collectors who can 10x their haul per year (while maintaining quality) to help drive down prices. The only exception here would be 'mallsai' which, at least here in Canada, are available at places like Wal-Mart and Home Depot and, I know for a fact, are imported from Asia for an absurdly low price per unit ($3-5) -- but to me that isn't the same hobby or market (although one hopes those buyers eventually make the crossover).
When it comes to plant sales, offering a blend of products at different price ranges (from $40 to $40,000) has been important for me. I always wondered why Ryan and Bjorn focused on the upper tier and never got into large-scale production, whether by hiring somebody or outsourcing that work to somebody who can be trained. But knowing myself how much space, time, and cost goes into this, I understand why somebody might not want to get into it.
Subscription and one-time fee models in exchange for education or 'content' can be more profitable, for sure, whether that's virtual or in person. I have no experience in this area.
Another profitable area, at least for me, has been maintenance. Here in Canada, trees require winter protection and renting out space in my cold frame from November to May can be profitable, although it comes with its own responsibilities and risks. I also rent bench space all summer as they do in Japan, for people who rather not deal with the day-to-day of caring for their trees. People with smaller collections (up to 8-10 trees thus far) have also brought their collections to me when they left the country for anywhere from 1-2 weeks up to a 1-year study-abroad program.
I also started to produce Ume fruit for restaurants, and rent bonsai for film shoots and to hotels, head offices, and car dealerships more often than one might imagine.
In sum, having many different streams of revenue such as plant sales (at all price ranges), product sales, subscription fees, maintenance fees, fruit sales, rental fees, etc. are critical in having a well-rounded antifragile bonsai business. Plant sales definitely went down in 2024 for everybody I have spoke to in the industry, but trees are 'wants', whereas my overwintering program has increased because for many people it's a 'necessity'.
