Absolutely correct. If you start with a tree nut, there is just enough carbohydrates in the nut to make the first root. The first root will have enough energy left to make the first pair of leaves. Those two leaves will make enough carbohydrates through photosynthesis to make the next roots which make the next leaves and so on. If you air layer and the tree is evergreen in winter, you might have success because the leaves can still produce carbohydrates to make roots. If the tree is deciduous and drops all its leaves, chances are very slim there is enough energy left in the limbs above the air layer to grow new roots. I would definitely wait till spring.