I'm nervous as hell I went too far. I am dissapointed because in trying to follow one piece of Ryan Neil's advice (don't intermediate repot for development), I feel like I ignored another, more important bit of his advice - when repotting a tree, there should never be a question about it surviving.
I often find myself being way too cautious in bonsai, as well as getting stuck in decision paralysis. For once I decided to just go for it, and we'll see if I end up paying the price.
Aftercare steps will be shade for a few weeks, consistent moisture but not waterlogging, keeping it out of early spring cold snaps. No fertilizer for a while. Are there other things I should be doing to improve recovery odds?