How long to tell if a collected pine will live?

[Srt8madness]

Pretty much as the title says. I know pines stay green for a while. I've had some bareroot dormant trees die in 3 weeks or so (trees that were shipped BR, seedlings basically).

Obviously not wanting to disturb any tender roots, when would you consider a collected pine at the point of likely survival?

 

[Kullas]

2 years?

 

[MaciekA]

Pretty much as the title says. I know pines stay green for a while. I've had some bareroot dormant trees die in 3 weeks or so (trees that were shipped BR, seedlings basically).

Obviously not wanting to disturb any tender roots, when would you consider a collected pine at the point of likely survival?

In my experience it's not one specific thing but more of a "confidence-building gradient" that you climb through out spring and summer, with either continuing/mounting evidence for one direction or the other.

Some (but not all) of the milestones I watch for:

1. Table stakes: Previous year needles don't dramatically lose color and don't turn into wiggly spaghetti
2. Promising but not conclusive: Candles form extend or form "green gaps" as they stretch out (progress can halt or pause here)
3. Promising but not conclusive: Initial needle tip appearance, but nothing past just the tips of needles -- on JBP these are whiteish, like Bowser's claws, so I call this the bowser claw stage regardless of species (progress can halt or pause here)
4. First celebration: Any initial needle elongation past the prior claw tip phase. IMO, first evidence that there are functioning roots. On a severely set back pine, you must scan the entire canopy because sometimes this starts with literally one needle, followed days later by dozens/hundreds of others.
5. Proper needle elongation -- now you're paying more attention to how many needles and how much elongation. If the needle yield is lower in count and physically much smaller than the previous year, you should pay attention to that -- tree might not be as thirsty this year and (depending on your climate) may have a caution light lit up for the following winter.

IMO, if a tree gets to #4 or #5, I am pretty confident that it will make it through summer-fall-winter. In my experience summer heat only enhances the recovery once water draw has been proven to exist, and I have a mild winter (and willing to use heat mats to further enhance root recovery). If a tree is in a really rough state, it can pause at #2 or #3 for weeks upon weeks and stay there long after all other pines have pushed needles, only to resume again once heat arrives.

Things that clearly signal the pine is in significant trouble / possible lost cause:

• Entire canopy color loss (nice green -> drab green), limpy / wimpy needles
• Significant loss of 1 year needles -- probably toast
• Candles never extend to show green gaps or show needle tips, especially if past mid June or very early July

I will also say that Randy Knight's advice to move pines to full sun very soon after beginning recovery and keeping them there has worked out very well for me. Pines kept in shade don't go anywhere. YMMV depending on climate though, I can only speak for NW Oregon.

 

[Shibui]

I begin to be cautiously optimistic when I get good spring growth.
Still green by mid summer is the second milestone.
Growth the following spring is convincing.